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The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals

Author

Listed:
  • Zelal Aktas
  • Neslihan Kaya
  • Umit Ozlale

Abstract

The recent studies by Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) imply that a tight monetary policy consistent with an inflation-targeting framework in emerging market economies could actually increase the price level due to the lack of fiscal discipline and the associated high risk premium. We extend their arguments in two ways. First, we introduce a semi structural model with time varying parameters, where the risk premium is �unobserved� and is derived within the system. Such an approach fits better with the volatile nature of the emerging market economies by allowing us to track down the time-varying effects of macroeconomic dynamics on both risk premium and other related variables. Second, we obtain the impulse response functions and analyze the implications of a tight monetary policy on the risk premium. Taking the Turkish economy as our reference point, we find that the arguments of Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) seem to be valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals," Working Papers 0502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0502
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2005/05-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 5, pages 117-158, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 5, pages 117-152, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    10. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
    11. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    14. Olcay Yucel Emir & Fatih Ozatay & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2004. "High Public Debt and Effects of News on Interest Rates," Working Papers 0403, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    2. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    3. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Özatay, 2008. "Inflation Targeting in Turkey," Working Papers 445, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    4. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    5. Ms. Garima Vasishtha & Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Ms. Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies: How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2006/184, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    7. Fatih …zatay, 2007. "Monetary Policy Challenges for Turkey in the European Union Accession Process," Chapters, in: Erdem Başçı & Sübidey Togan & Jürgen von Hagen (ed.), Macroeconomic Policies for EU Accession, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ozgur ASLAN & H. Levent KORAP, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In An Open Economy Framework: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, May.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in an Emerging Market Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-100/2, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk Premium; Non-Linear State Space Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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