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What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis

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  • Martin Cerisola
  • Gaston Gelos

Abstract

This study examines the macro-economic determinants of survey inflation expectations in Brazil since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999. The results suggest that the inflation-targeting framework has helped anchor expectations, with the dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that apart from the inflation target, the stance of fiscal policy, as proxied by the ratio of the consolidated primary surplus to GDP, has been instrumental in shaping expectations. The importance of past inflation in determining expectations appears to be relatively low, and the overall empirical evidence does not suggest the presence of substantial inertia in the inflation process.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1215-1227

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:10:p:1215-1227

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  1. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati & Oya Celasun, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Antonio Tombini, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Shocks, Backward-looking prices, and IMF conditionality," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 110, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Vittorio Corbo & Oscar Landerretche & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," Working Papers 51, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Reisen Valderio A & Cribari-Neto Francisco & Jensen Mark J, 2003. "Long Memory Inflationary Dynamics: The Case of Brazil," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, October.
  8. Novaes, Ana Dolores, 1993. "Revisiting the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 89-110, October.
  9. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
  10. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
  11. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
  12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ana Katarina Campêlo & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2003. "Inflation Inertia and Inliers: The Case of Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(4), pages 713-739, October.
  14. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Obstacles to disinflation: what is the role of fiscal expectations?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 441-481, October.
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