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The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: new developments

In: Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies

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  • Erdem Basci

    (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Özgür Özel

    (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Cagri Sarikaya

    (Central Bank of Turkey)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to study the changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Turkey. The analysis hinges upon both qualitative and quantitative evidence regarding various channels of monetary policy transmission. The arguments about the extent of the exchange rate, interest rate, asset price, credit and expectations channel are based on various studies conducted especially in the aftermath of the February 2001 financial crisis. The paper asserts that the interest rate and the credit channel have an increasingly visible effect on economic activity, while the prominence of the exchange rate channel tends to attenuate in the post-crisis period thanks to prudent fiscal policies and the start of the inflation-targeting regime under floating exchange rates. Furthermore, the improvements in the communication policy increased the ability of the Central Bank of Turkey in managing expectations along with an enhanced credibility.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 35, 8.
    This item is provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Papers chapters with number 35-24.

    Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:35-24

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    2. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hakan Kara & Hande Küçük-Tuger & Ümit Özlale & Burç Tuger & Eray M. Yücel, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Pass-Through: Evidence From The Turkish Economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 206-225, 04.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    8. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Serkan Yigit, 2005. "Corporate Sector Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect in Turkey," Working Papers 0516, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Eduardo Morón & Diego Winkelried, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/39, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Fatih Ozatay, 2005. "Monetary Policy Challenges for Turkey in European Union Accession Process," Working Papers 0511, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kara, Orhan, 2000. "Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 89-93, July.
    13. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
    15. Halil Ibrahim Aydin, 2007. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," Working Papers 0705, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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    Cited by:
    1. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    2. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    3. Adnen Chockri & Ibticem Frihka, 2011. "La portée de la politique de ciblage d’inflation: Approche analytique et empirique pour le cas Tunisien," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 91-111, March.
    4. James L. Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2013. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Working Papers 13-08, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    5. Catik, A. Nazif & Karaçuka, Mehmet, 2011. "The bank lending channel in Turkey: Has it changed after the low inflation regime?," DICE Discussion Papers 32, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    6. Kose, Nezir & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Aksoy, Sezgin, 2012. "The interest rate–inflation relationship under an inflation targeting regime: The case of Turkey," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 476-485.
    7. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.

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