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Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia

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Author Info
Adriana Kugler
Maurice Kugler

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Abstract

We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the rise in payroll tax rates over the 1980s and 1990s affected the labor market. Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as a result of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This "less-than-full-shifting" is likely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and the presence of downward wage rigidities in Colombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted from employers to employees, employment also falls. Our results indicate that a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between 4% and 5%. In addition, we find some evidence of less shifting and larger disemployment effects for production than for non-production workers. These results suggest that policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of less-skill workers by reducing social security taxes may be effective in Latin American countries, where minimum wages bind and benefits are often not directly linked to contributions.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13855.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13855

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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  1. Adriana D. Kugler, 1999. "The Impact of Firing Costs on Turnover and Unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian Labour Market Reform," Economics Working Papers 388, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kugler, Adriana D., 2005. "Wage-shifting effects of severance payments savings accounts in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 487-500, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mariano Bosch & Edwin Goni & William Maloney, 2007. "The Determinants of Rising Informality in Brazil: Evidence from Gross Worker Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 2970, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. James Alm, 2004. "Introduction," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 231-235, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Maloney, William F., 2005. "Labor demand and trade reform in Latin America," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 423-446, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Incidence of Payroll Taxation: Evidence from Chile," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages S72-101, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Adriana Kugler, 1999. "The Impact of Firing Costs on Turnover and Unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian Labour Market Reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 389-410, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert J. Gordon, 1972. "Wage-Price Controls and the Shifting Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1972-2), pages 385-430. [Downloadable!]
  10. JOHN HALTIWANGER & ADRIANA KUGLER & MAURICE KUGLER & ALEJANDRO MICCO & CARMEN PAGÉS, 2004. "Introduction," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 189-190, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Maloney, William F, 1999. "Does Informality Imply Segmentation in Urban Labor Markets? Evidence from Sectoral Transitions in Mexico," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 275-302, May.
  12. MacIsaac, Donna & Rama, Martin, 1997. "Determinants of Hourly Earnings in Ecuador: The Role of Labor Market Regulations," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages S136-65, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert Kaestner, 1996. "The effect of government-mandated benefits on youth unemployment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 50(1), pages 122-142, October.
  14. Maloney, William F., 2004. "Informality Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1159-1178, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Carlos Arango & Angélica Pachón, 2004. "Minimum Wages in Colombia: Holding the Middle with a Bite," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003224, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Gruber, Jonathan, 1994. "The Incidence of Mandated Maternity Benefits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 622-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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