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Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia

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  • Adriana Kugler
  • Maurice Kugler

Abstract

We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the rise in payroll tax rates over the 1980s and 1990s affected the labor market. Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as a result of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This "less-than-full-shifting" is likely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and the presence of downward wage rigidities in Colombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted from employers to employees, employment also falls. Our results indicate that a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between 4% and 5%. In addition, we find some evidence of less shifting and larger disemployment effects for production than for non-production workers. These results suggest that policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of less-skill workers by reducing social security taxes may be effective in Latin American countries, where minimum wages bind and benefits are often not directly linked to contributions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13855.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13855

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References

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  1. Maloney, William, 2003. "Informality revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2965, The World Bank.
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  8. Gruber, Jonathan, 1994. "The Incidence of Mandated Maternity Benefits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 622-41, June.
  9. Kugler, Adriana D., 2005. "Wage-shifting effects of severance payments savings accounts in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 487-500, February.
  10. Adriana Kugler, 1999. "The Impact of Firing Costs on Turnover and Unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian Labour Market Reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 389-410, August.
  11. Adriana D. Kugler, 2004. "The Effect of Job Security Regulations on Labor Market Flexibility. Evidence from the Colombian Labor Market Reform," NBER Chapters, in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 183-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Carlos Arango & Angélica Pachón, 2004. "Minimum Wages in Colombia: Holding the Middle with a Bite," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003224, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  16. MacIsaac, Donna & Rama, Martin, 1997. "Determinants of Hourly Earnings in Ecuador: The Role of Labor Market Regulations," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages S136-65, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Eslava, Marcela & Haltiwanger, John C. & Kugler, Adriana & Kugler, Maurice, 2009. "Trade Reforms and Market Selection: Evidence from Manufacturing Plants in Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 4256, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Albrecht, James & Navarro, Lucas & Vroman, Susan, 2006. "The Effects of Labor Market Policies in an Economy with an Informal Sector," IZA Discussion Papers 2141, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Marcela Eslava & John Haltiwanger & Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2005. "Factor Adjustments After Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants," NBER Working Papers 11656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mauricio Santa María S. & Fabián García A. & Ana Virgina Mujica P., 2009. "Los costos no laborales y el mercado laboral: impacto de la reforma de salud en Colombia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009186, FEDESARROLLO.
  5. Almeida, Rita & Carneiro, Pedro, 2009. "Mandated benefits, employment, and inequality in a dual economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5119, The World Bank.
  6. Adriana Camacho & Emily Conover, 2010. "Misallocation and Productivity in Colombia’s Manufacturing Industries," Research Department Publications 4654, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Matthieu Bunel & Fabrice Gilles & Yannick L?Horty, . "The effect of social security payroll tax reductions on employment and wages: an evaluation of the 2003 French reform," Papers 2010-5, TEPP Working Papers.
  8. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009154, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Lehmann, Etienne & Marical, François & Rioux, Laurence, 2011. "Labor Earnings Respond Differently to Income-Tax and to Payroll-Tax Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 6108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Attanasio, Orazio & Kugler, Adriana & Meghir, Costas, 2009. "Subsidizing Vocational Training for Disadvantaged Youth in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Randomized Trial," IZA Discussion Papers 4251, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Pia Rattenhuber, 2012. "Marginal Taxes: A Good or a Bad for Wages?: The Incidence of the Structure of Income and Labor Taxes on Wages," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1193, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Sergio Clavijo, 2009. "Social Security Reforms in Colombia: Striking Demographic and Fiscal Balances," IMF Working Papers 09/58, International Monetary Fund.

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