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Measuring Core Inflation in Italy

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Author Info

  • Fabio C. Bagliano

    ()
    (University of Turin)

  • Claudio Morana

    (Università del Piemonte Orientale)

Abstract

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for Italy is estimate over the 1962-1997 period within the frame work of a multivariate common trends model. In this framework core inflation is directly linked to money and wage growth and interpreted as the long-run forecast of inflation. This measure displays several desirable properties: lower variability than observed inflation, forecasting power, robustness to the estimation sample and economic interpretability.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University in its journal Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia.

Volume (Year): 58 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (December)
Pages: 301-328

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Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v58_n3-4_p301-328

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Related research

Keywords: core inflation; common trend; inflatino targeting;

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Cited by:
  1. Morana, Claudio, 2004. "A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting," Working Paper Series 0305, European Central Bank.
  2. Martha Misas A>rango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar Restrepo, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente En Colombia: Un Enfoque De Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas A Un Vec Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003026, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Measuring core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0036, European Central Bank.
  4. Claudio Morana, 2003. "Long-Run Growth and Income Distribution: Evidence for Italy and the US," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 62(2), pages 171-210, October.
  5. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.

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