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A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting

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  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

In the article we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally co-integrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the common persistent feature in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterized by all the properties that an 'ideal' core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 14 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 163-169

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:163-169

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References

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  1. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
  2. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
  3. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  4. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties," Working Paper Series 0060, European Central Bank.
  5. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
  6. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0061, European Central Bank.
  7. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  8. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2003. "A common trends model of UK core inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 157-172, January.
  9. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 1999. "Measuring Core Inflation in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 58(3-4), pages 301-328, December.
  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Arrazola, Maria & de Hevia, Jose, 2002. "An alternative measure of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-73, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Cavallero, Alessandro, 2011. "The convergence of inflation rates in the EU-12 area: A distribution dynamics approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 341-357, June.
  2. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 0346, European Central Bank.
  3. Wojciech Charemza & Imran Hussain Shah, 2012. "Stability Price Index, Core Inflation and Output Volatility," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/21, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Adaptive ARFIMA models with applications to inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2451-2459.

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