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Modeling Short-Term Interest Rate Spreads in the Euro Money Market

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  • Nuno Cassola

    (European Central Bank)

  • Claudio Morana

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Quantitativi, Università del Piemonte Orientale, Novara (Italy) and International Centre for Economic Research (ICER), Torino)

Abstract

In the framework of a new money-market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank (ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. subprime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second half of 2007. This is done in two steps. Firstly, the long-term behavior of interest rates with one-week maturity is investigated by testing for cobreaking and for homogeneity of spreads against the minimum bid rate (MBR, the key policy rate). These tests capture the idea that successful steering of very short-term interest rates is inconsistent with the existence of more than one common trend driving the one-week interest rates and/or with nonstationarity of the spreads among interest rates of the same maturity (or measured against the MBR). Secondly, the impact of several shocks to the spreads (e.g., interest rate expectations, volumes of open-market operations, interest rate volatility, policy interventions, and credit risk) is assessed by jointly modeling their behavior. We show that after August 2007, euro-area commercial banks started paying a premium to participate in the ECB liquidity auctions. This puzzling phenomenon can be understood by the interplay between, on the one hand, adverse selection in the interbank market and, on the other hand, the broad range of collateral accepted by the ECB. We also show that after August 2007, the ECB steered the “risk-free” rate close to the policy rate, but has not fully offset the impact of the credit events on other money-market rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1-37

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:4:a:1

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References

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  1. Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Valla, Natacha, 2006. "Declining valuations and equilibrium bidding in central bank refinancing operations," Working Paper Series 0668, European Central Bank.
  2. Peter M Robinson & Yoshihiro Yajima, 2001. "Determination of Cointegrating Rank in Fractional Systems," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2001/423, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  3. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2007. "Manipulation in Money Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 113-148, March.
  4. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  5. Nautz, Dieter & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Monetary policy implementation and overnight rate persistence," Discussion Papers 2010/26, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  6. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
  7. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrea Cipollini & Iolanda Lo Cascio & Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "Volatility co-movements: a time scale decomposition analysis," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13111, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  2. Gabriel Pérez Quirés & Hugo Rodréguez Mendizébal, 2009. "Asymmetric Standing Facilities: An Unexploited Monetary Policy Tool," Working Papers 414, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Dieter Nautz & Jan Scheithauer, 2009. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Overnight Rate Persistence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Natacha Valla, 2007. "Declining Valuations And Equilibrium Bidding In Central Bank Refinancing Operations," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
  5. Busch, Ulrike & Nautz, Dieter, 2009. "Controllability and persistence of money market rates along the yield curve: evidence from the euro area," Discussion Papers 2009/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  6. De La Motte, Laura & Czernomoriez, Janna & Clemens, Marius, 2010. "Zur Vertrauensökonomik: Der Interbankenmarkt in der Krise von 2007-2009
    [Economics of trust: The interbank market during the crisis 2007-2009]
    ," MPRA Paper 20357, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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