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Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence

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Author Info
Fabio Bagliano () (University of Turin and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin)
Claudio Morana () (Università del Piemonte Orientale and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin)

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Abstract

In this paper a small-scale macroeconomic system is estimated in the framework of a common trends model, in order to explore the dynamic interactions between real house prices, consumption expenditure and output in the US and major European economies. The results point to important differences across countries, with long-run house price effects on consumption only for France, Germany and the US. However, some interactions between house prices and consumption are detected in all countries at shorter horizons. Evidence of international comovements in the common trend component of house price dynamics is also found.

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File URL: http://cerp.unito.it/index.php/it/pubblicazioni/working-papers/610-permanent-and-transitory-dynamics-in-house-prices-and-consumption-cross-country-evidence
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy) in its series CeRP Working Papers with number 81.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:81

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  1. Andrea Finicelli, 2007. "House price developments and fundamentals in the United States," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 7, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," NBER Working Papers 13553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  4. Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-22, August.
  5. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Morana, Claudio, 2007. "Multivariate modelling of long memory processes with common components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 919-934, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1630, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  11. Shiller, Robert J., 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Working Papers 28, Yale University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bradford Case & William N. Goetzmann & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2000. "Global Real Estate Markets - Cycles and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 7566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123. [Downloadable!]
  16. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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