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The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?

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Author Info
Claudio Morana
Abstract

Has deflation contributed to the long lasting stagnation of the Japanese economy? Could the Bank of Japan have stopped deflation by implementing a more expansionary monetary policy? Tentative answers are probably not to the first question, and probably yes to the second question. It is found that the total cost of deflation over the period 1995--2003 has been close to a 1.1% rate of lost GDP. Yet, on the basis of statistical significance and robustness to specification choices, this evidence is not compelling. On the other hand, the estimated positive linkage between nominal base money growth and inflation is significant and robust, even given current economic conditions. However, in order to be inflationary, monetary policy should have been more expansionary than what actually observed, even since the launch of the quantitative easing in 2001.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 12 (July)
Pages: 1337-1352
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:12:p:1337-1352

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  3. Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Japan: Why has the Bank of Japan not Adopted Inflation Targeting?," NBER Working Papers 10818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Conrad, C. & Karanasos, M., 2005. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in the USA, Japan and the UK: a dual long memory approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 327-343, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Hsiao, Cheng & Shen, Yan, 2002. "Is There a Stable Money Demand Function under the Low Interest Rate Policy? A Panel Data Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-23, April. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Kalaba, R. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2004. "Flexible Least Squares for Approximately Linear Systems," Staff General Research Papers 11190, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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