This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Deflation: Prevention and Cure

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Willem H. Buiter

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

After an absence of almost half a century, the spectre of deflation is once again haunting the corridors of central banks and finance ministries in the industrial world. While preventing or combating deflation poses some unique difficulties not present in preventing or combating inflation, deflation can be prevented and, if it has taken hold, can be overcome, using conventional instruments of monetary and fiscal policy. These include open market purchases of government securities and monetary financing of government deficits caused by expansionary fiscal measures. Base money-financed tax cuts or transfer payments -- the mundane version of Friedman's helicopter drop of money -- will always boost aggregate demand. Unconventional monetary and fiscal measures are also available. These include open market purchases of private and foreign securities, negative nominal interest rates (through a carry tax on currency) and temporary tax measures aimed at shifting private consumption from the future to the present, by tilting the intertemporal terms of trade. An example is a cut in VAT today coupled to the credible commitment of a VAT increase in the future. Deflation results from a combination of bad luck and poor economic management, including the failure to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy. Sustained unwanted deflation is evidence of policy failure. Both the knowledge and the tools exist to prevent unwanted deflation.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9623.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9623.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9623

Note: IFM ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  3. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Karen Johnson & David Small & Ralph Tryon, 1999. "Monetary policy and price stability," International Finance Discussion Papers 641, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. David Card & Dean Hyslop, 1996. "Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?," NBER Working Papers 5538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  11. Itoh, Motoshige & Shimoi, Naoki, 2000. "On the Role of Monetary Policy in a Deflationary Economy: The Case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 238-260, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Motoshige Itoh & Naoki Shimoi, 2000. "On the role of monetary policy in a deflationary economy: The case of Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-90, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  13. Fischer, Stanley, 1979. "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1433-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  15. Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment," NBER Working Papers 9203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
    Other versions:
  19. Alan Ahearne & Joseph Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steve Kamin ... [et al.]., 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  20. repec:bep:mactop:v:3:y:2003:i:1:p:1088-1088 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  21. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 2000. "Is the Japanese economy in a liquidity trap?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 17-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 112, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Smith, Jennifer C, 2000. "Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C176-95, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1998. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Willem H. Buiter & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2003. "Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates with negative interest on currency: gesell's solution," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 723-746, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Freedman, Charles, 2000. "Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 1051-57, November.
  30. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Brian F. Madigan, 1997. "Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 573-585, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Kahneman, Daniel & Knetsch, Jack L & Thaler, Richard, 1986. "Fairness as a Constraint on Profit Seeking: Entitlements in the Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 728-41, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Bryant, Ralph C, 2000. "Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 1036-50, November.
  33. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 9373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Alan S. Blinder, 1994. "On Sticky Prices: Academic Theories Meet the Real World," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 117-154 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  36. Taylor, John-B, 2001. "Low Inflation, Deflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 35-51, February. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joerg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation Contrasting Strategies & Lessons from International Experience," Macroeconomics 0402014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jšrg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive 400, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  3. Buiter, Willem H, 2003. "Two Naked Emperors? Concerns about the Stability and Growth Pact and Second Thoughts About Central Bank Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "On Lower-bound Traps: A Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy in the ÒAgeÓ of Central Banks," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_478, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wilem H. Buiter, 2005. "Overcoming the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Gesell's Currency Carry Tax vs. Eisler's arallel Virtual Currency," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-96, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Romain Veyrune, 2005. "Le prix de la fixité : Application à l'Union monétaire des Caraïbes orientales et à la Zone franc," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 130(2), pages 63-76. [Downloadable!]
  7. Taimur Baig, 2003. "Understanding the Costs of Deflation in the Japanese Context," IMF Working Papers 03/215, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Junning Cai, 2004. "Liquidity Trap Prevention and Escape: A Simple Proposition," Macroeconomics 0402033, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Buiter, Willem H, 2004. "Helicopter Money: Irredeemable Fiat Money and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 4202, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2006. "Fiscal multipliers and policy coordination," Staff Reports 241, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2005. "Liquidity and growth traps: a framework for the analysis of macroeconomic policy in the 'age' of Central Banks," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 05-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
  12. Roy Cromb & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, . "Long-term interest rates, wealth and consumption," Bank of England working papers 243, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-14.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.