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Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps

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  • Ragna Alstadheim
  • Dale W. Henderson

Abstract

We consider monetary-policy rules with inflation-rate targets and interest-rate or money-growth instruments using a flexible-price, perfect-foresight model. There is always a locally-unique target equilibrium. There may also be below-target equilibria (BTE) with inflation always below target and constant, asymptotically approaching or eventually reaching a below-target value, or oscillating. Liquidity traps are neither necessary nor sufficient for BTE which can arise if monetary policy keeps the interest rate above a lower bound. We construct monetary rules that preclude BTE when fiscal policy does not. Plausible fiscal policies preclude BTE for any monetary policy; those policies exclude surpluses and, possibly, balanced budgets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 795.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:795

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Prices ; Monetary policy ; Econometric models;

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  1. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Policy Interaction, Learning, And The Fiscal Theory Of Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 665-690, November.
  2. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Departmental Working Papers 199925, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 211-246, February.
  4. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," NBER Working Papers 6471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 112, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Efficient monetary policy design near price stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August.
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  10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Scholarly Articles 12491027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Departmental Working Papers 199914, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  12. repec:nbr:nberwo:8225 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  14. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
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  16. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  17. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectations, and the liquidity trap," Working Paper 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Seminar Papers 687, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 1, pages 001-022 Central Bank of Chile.
  24. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jean-Pascal Bénassy & Michel Guillard, 2005. "The Taylor Principle and Global Determinacy in a Non-Ricardian World," Documents de recherche 05-26, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  3. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
  4. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Zero Lower Bound: Frequency, Duration, and Determinacy," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-16, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  5. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00590558 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2005. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 849, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2012. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/121, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Rym Aloui & Michel Guillard, 2009. "A Simple “Public Debt-Deflation” Theory: Leeper revisited," Documents de recherche 09-11, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  9. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Eliminating a deflationary trap through superinertial interest rate rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 119-122, July.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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