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Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules

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  • Schmidt, Sebastian

Abstract

In the presence of the zero lower bound, standard business cycle models with a Taylor-type monetary policy rule are prone to equilibrium multiplicity. A drop in confidence can drive the economy into a liquidity trap without any change in fundamentals. Using a prototypical sticky-price model, I show that Ricardian fiscal spending rules that prevent real marginal costs from declining in the face of a confidence shock insulate the economy from such expectations-driven liquidity traps. JEL Classification: E52, E62

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt, Sebastian, 2015. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Working Paper Series 1795, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151795
    Note: 2179645
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1795.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Coyle & Taisuke Nakata, 2019. "Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. He Nie & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "The promises (and perils) of control-contingent forward guidance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 77-98, July.
    3. Rodríguez Arosemena, Nicolás, 2018. "The Dominium Mundi Game and the Case for Artificial Intelligence in Economics and the Law," MPRA Paper 90560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Philip Coyle & Taisuke Nakata, 2020. "Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," CARF F-Series CARF-F-485, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Liu, Shih-fu & Huang, Wei-chi & Lai, Ching-chong, 2020. "Could Fiscal Policies Overcome a Deep Recession at the Zero Lower Bound?," MPRA Paper 101282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dajčman Silvo, 2020. "Economic policy and confidence of economic agents – a causal relationship?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(4), pages 471-484, December.
    7. Tamanyu, Yoichiro, 2022. "Tax Rules To Prevent Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1564-1587, September.
    8. Piergallini, Alessandro, 2022. "Average inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    9. Mackowiak, Bartosz & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Schmidt, Sebastian & Jarocinski, Marek, 2017. "Macroeconomic Stabilization, Monetary-Fiscal Interactions, and Europe’s Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 12371, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2020. "The Role of Nonlinearity in Indeterminate Models: An Application to Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-023, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe's monetary union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 22-33.
    12. Alessandro Piergallini, 2021. "Fiscal Stimulus of Last Resort," Papers 2104.02753, arXiv.org.
    13. Florin O. Bilbiie, 2022. "Neo-Fisherian Policies and Liquidity Traps," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 378-403, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government spending; liquidity trap; Multiple Equilibria; Ricardian fiscal policy; sunspots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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