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Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld
Kenneth Rogoff

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Abstract

Knife-edge stability is a common property of dynamic monetary models assuming perfect foresight or rational expectations. These models can be closed with the assumption that the economy's equilibrium lies on the unique convergent path (the saddlepath). While this empirically plausible assumption yields sensible results, aggregative models are not specified in sufficient detail to allow one to prove that the saddlepath is the unique equilibrium path. Brock (1974, 1975) and Brock and Scheinkman (1980) have advanced models in which individual preferences are more fully specified and in which, under certain conditions, the uniqueness and stability of equilibrium can be rigorously demonstrated. This paper shows that these uniqueness conditions are economically unreasonable. Therefore, the question these maximizing models address remains unresolved.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0855.

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Date of creation: Aug 1983
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Publication status: published as Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?" Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 4, (August 1983), pp. 675-687. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol . 22, No. 1, (March 1984).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0855

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1979. "On Models of Money and Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1980. "The Role of Trade Flows in Exchange Rate Determination: A Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1148-58, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Brock, William A. & Scheinkman, J. A., 1979. "Some Remarks on Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Working Papers 246, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
  5. Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Brock, William A, 1974. "Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 750-77, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Inflation, Real Interest, and the Determinacy of Equilibrium in an Optimizing Framework," NBER Working Papers 0723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-48, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fischer, Stanley, 1974. "Money and the Production Function," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 517-33, December.
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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