We analyse deflationary bubbles in a model where money is the only financial asset. We show that such bubbles are consistent with the household’s transversality condition if and only if the nominal money stock is falling. Our results are in sharp contrast to those in several prominent contributions to the literature, where deflationary bubbles are ruled out by appealing to a non-standard transversality condition, originally due to Brock ([4], [5]). This condition, which we dub the GABOR condition, states that the consumer must be indifferent between reducing his money holdings by one unit and leaving them unchanged and enjoying the discounted present value of the marginal utility of that unit of money forever. We show that the GABOR condition is not part of the necessary and sufficient conditions for household optimality nor is it sufficient to rule out deflationary bubbles. Moreover, it rules out Friedman’s optimal quantity of money equilibrium and, when the nominal money stock is falling, it rules out deflationary bubbles that are consistent with household optimality. We also consider economies with real and nominal government debt and small open economies where private agents can lend to and borrow from abroad. In these cases, deflationary bubbles may be possible, even when the nominal money stock is rising. Their existence is shown to depend on the rules governing the issuance of government debt.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
4528.
Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne C., 2007.
"Deflationary Bubbles,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 431-454, August.
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Paper
Willem H. Buiter & Anne C. Sibert, 2004.
"Deflationary Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
10642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - General E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
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Weil, Philippe, 1991.
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International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(1), pages 37-53, February.
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Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002.
"Avoiding Liquidity Traps,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June.
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Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1999.
"Avoiding Liquidity Traps,"
Working Papers
99-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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