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Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion

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Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

This paper concerns the minimal-state-variable (MSV) criterion for selection among solutions in rational expectations (RE) models that feature a multiplicity of paths that satisfy all of the model's conditions. It compares the MSV criterion with others that have been proposed, including the widely used saddle-path (or dynamic stability) criterion. It is emphasized that the MSV criterion can be viewed as a classification scheme that delineates the unique solution that is free of bubble or sunspot components. This scheme is of scientific value as it (a) yields a single solution upon which a researcher can focus attention if desired and (b) provides the basis for a substantive hypothesis that actual market outcomes are generally of a bubble-free nature. In the process of demonstrating uniqueness of the MSV solution for a broad class of linear models, the paper exposits a convenient and practical computational procedure. Also, several applications to current issues regarding monetary policy are outlined.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7087.

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Date of creation: Mar 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7087

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
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  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  21. Gray, Jo Anna, 1984. "Dynamic Instability in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt to Clarify," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 93-122, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Burmeister, Edwin & Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1983. "On the equivalence of solutions in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 311-321, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, . "Assessing Money Supply Rules," Working Papers 2003_9, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Money Supply and the Implementation of Interest Rate Targets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-059/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Timeless Perspective Vs Discretionary Monetary Policy in Forward-Looking Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Schabert, Andreas & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2006. "Debt, Deficits and Destabilizing Monetary Policy in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Hysteresis," Economics Series Working Papers 250, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Shamik Dhar & Stephen P Millard, . "A limited participation model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 117, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Richard Mash, 2003. "A Note on Simple MSV Solution Methods for Rational Expectations Models of Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Svensson, Lars E O & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Matthias Brückner & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Can Money Matter for Interest Rate Policy?," Working Paper Series in Economics 6, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Andreas Schabert, . "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andreas Schabert, 2003. "On the Relevance of Open Market Operations," Working Paper Series in Economics 4, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Matt Klaeffling, 2003. "Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 257, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Christian Jensen & Bennett C. McCallum, 2002. "The Non-Optimality of Proposed Monetary Policy Rules Under Timeless-Perspective Commitment," NBER Working Papers 8882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Andreas Schabert, . "On the Equivalence of Money Growth and Interest Rate Policy," Working Papers 2003_6, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2003. [Downloadable!]
  17. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Alternative Monetary Rules for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Canada," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 466, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Oct 2000. [Downloadable!]
  19. Florin Ovidiu Bilbiie & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: a cross country comparison," Working Paper Series 582, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. Bruce McGough & Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2004. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Antonio Moreno, 2003. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Faculty Working Papers 13/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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