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Reaching Inflation Stability

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  • Antonio Moreno

Abstract

Inflation volatility has significantly declined over the last 20 years in the U.S. To find out why, I follow a structural approach. I estimate a complete New Keynesian model which imposes cross-equation restrictions on the time series of inflation, the output gap and the interest rate. I perform counterfactual analysis with two commonly used measures of inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product Deflator (GDPD). While the change in the propagation mechanism of the economy induced most of the CPI volatility drop, it played a smaller role in the reduction of GDPD volatility. Our maximum likelihood estimates imply that the most important factor behind the drop in inflation volatility was the more forward-looking price setting behavior of the 80s and 90s

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 269.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:269

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Keywords: Inflation Volatility; Structural Model; Monetary Policy Rule;

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