This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Reaching Inflation Stability

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Antonio Moreno
Abstract

Inflation volatility has significantly declined over the last 20 years in the U.S. To find out why, I follow a structural approach. I estimate a complete New Keynesian model which imposes cross-equation restrictions on the time series of inflation, the output gap and the interest rate. I perform counterfactual analysis with two commonly used measures of inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product Deflator (GDPD). While the change in the propagation mechanism of the economy induced most of the CPI volatility drop, it played a smaller role in the reduction of GDPD volatility. Our maximum likelihood estimates imply that the most important factor behind the drop in inflation volatility was the more forward-looking price setting behavior of the 80s and 90s

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/esNASM04/up.11442.1075394697.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 269.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:269

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Inflation Volatility Structural Model Monetary Policy Rule

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  6. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15, pages 5-41. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1997. "State-dependent pricing and the dynamics of business cycles," Working Paper 97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  12. Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2004. "Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 824-832, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  16. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  17. Frank Smets, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  20. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15, pages 57-85. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard Porter, 1998. "P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Christopher Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  26. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael S. Hanson, 2006. "Varying Monetary Policy Regimes: A Vector Autoregressive Investigation," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Miguel Casares, 2006. "A close look at model-dependent monetary policy design," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 451-470. [Downloadable!]
  3. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in the European Union and Implications for the objectives of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 2008_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by encouraging others to use our services.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.