Learning From The Expectations Of Others
AbstractThe assumption of perfectly rational representative agents is now commonly questioned. This paper explores the equilibrium properties of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. We combine an adaptive learning process in a modified cobweb model within a Stackleberg framework. We assume that there is an asymmetric information diffusion process from leading to following firms. In contrast to a simple cobweb model which has a unique REE, our model may produce multiple restricted perceptions equilibria (RPE). However, a unique and learnable RPE, under certain conditions, can exist in our model. In addition, the following firms' forecasts can confound the leading firms' forecasts -- when the following firms misinterpret information coming from the leading firms. We refer this situation to the boomerang effect. We also find that the leading firms' mean squared forecast error can be even larger than that of following firms if the proportion of following firms is sufficiently large in the market
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 12 (2008)
Issue (Month): 03 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDYProvider-Email:firstname.lastname@example.org
Other versions of this item:
- Jim Granato & Eran Guse & Sunny Wong, 2006. "Learning From the Expectations of Others," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 449, Society for Computational Economics.
- Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bomfim, Antulio N., 2001. "Heterogeneous forecasts and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 145-161, February.
- John Haltiwanger & Michael Waldman, 1983.
"Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
303, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-40, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997.
"Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
6157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
- D. Backus & J. Driffil, 1998.
"Inflation and Reputation,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
625, David K. Levine.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1983.
"On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
- Bennett T. McCallum, .
"Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models,"
GSIA Working Papers
1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002.
"Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
772, CESifo Group Munich.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning stability in economics with heterogeneous agents," Working Paper Series 0120, European Central Bank.
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1992. "On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, February.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
- Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
- Eugene Kandel & Ben-Zion Zilberfarb, 1999. "Differential Interpretation Of Information In Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 217-226, May.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002.
"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
- Guse, Eran A., 2008.
"Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
- Guse, E., 2005. "Learning in a Misspecified Multivariate Self-referential Linear Stochastic Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0548, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Eran Guse, 2007. "Learning in a Misspecified Multivariate Self-Referential Linear Stochastic Model," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 71, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
- Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
- Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2008. "Replicator dynamics in a Cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 224-244, February.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1996. "Least squares learning with heterogeneous expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 197-201, November.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion," NBER Working Papers 7087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983.
"Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1984. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Ichiro Muto, 2008.
"Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast,"
IMES Discussion Paper Series
08-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Muto, Ichiro, 2011. "Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 52-66, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.