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Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model

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Author Info
Guse, Eran A.

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Abstract

This paper introduces a general method to study learnability of equilibria resulting from agents using misspecified forecasting models. One can represent the actual and perceived laws of motion (PLM) as seemingly unrelated regressions and then linearly project the actual law of motion into the same class as the PLM. I present an application using the New Keynesian IS-AS model with inertia under several simple Taylor policy rules. It turns out that the results presented in Bullard and Mitra [2002. Learning about monetary policy rules. Journal of Monetary Economics 49, 1105-1129; 2005. Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming] are robust when agents do not include all the state variables in their forecasting models.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 1517-1542
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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:1517-1542

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  2. Michael Dotsey, 2002. "Pitfalls in interpreting tests of backward-looking pricing in New Keynesian models," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 37-50. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1999. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1888, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  6. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 501, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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