Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?
AbstractWe examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks that push interest rates to the zero bound, a temporary fiscal stimulus or a policy of fiscal austerity, appropriately tailored in magnitude and duration, will insulate the economy from deflation traps. However "fiscal switching rules" that automatically kick in without discretionary fine tuning can be equally effective.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18114.
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as “Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?,” (with George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja), forthcoming, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015.
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Other versions of this item:
- Benhabib , Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
- Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-06-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2012-06-05 (Macroeconomics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Is it time for the Fed to raise its policy rate?
by David Andolfatto in MacroMania on 2013-01-20 02:18:00
- Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 19368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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