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Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s

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Author Info
Alan Ahearne
Joseph Gagnon
Jane Haltmaier
Steve Kamin ... [et al.].

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Abstract

This paper examines Japan's experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise as inflation declines toward zero. Is it possible to recognize when an economy is moving into a phase of sustained deflation? How quickly should monetary policy respond to sharp declines in inflation? Are there factors that inhibit the monetary transmission mechanism as interest rates approach zero? What is the role for fiscal policy in warding off a deflationary episode? We conclude that Japan's sustained deflationary slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese policymakers and observers alike, and that this was a key factor in the authorities' failure to provide sufficient stimulus to maintain growth and positive inflation. Once inflation turned negative and short-term interest rates approached the zero-lower-bound, it became much more difficult for monetary policy to reactivate the economy. We found little compelling evidence that in the lead up to deflation in the first half of the 1990s, the ability of either monetary or fiscal policy to help support the economy fell off significantly. Based on all these considerations, we draw the general lesson from Japan's experience that when inflation and interest rates have fallen close to zero, and the risk of deflation is high, stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, should go beyond the levels conventionally implied by baseline forecasts of future inflation and economic activity.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 729.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy - Japan ; Deflation (Finance) - Japan CL HG136 A54;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 137-206. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
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  5. Brunner, Allan D & Kamin, Steven B, 1998. "Bank Lending and Economic Activity in Japan: Did 'Financial Factors' Contribute to the Recent Downturn?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 73-89, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 1999. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Working Papers 7250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gibson, Michael S, 1995. "Can Bank Health Affect Investment? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 281-308, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Blinder, Alan S, 2000. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Balancing the Risks: Summary Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 1093-99, November.
  14. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
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  15. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ryo Kato & Shinichi Nishiyama, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bound at Zero," Working Papers 01-12, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Perri, Fabrizio, 2001. "The role of fiscal policy in Japan: a quantitative study," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Andrew T. Levin & John H. Rogers & Ralph W. Tryon, 1997. "A guide to FRB/Global," International Finance Discussion Papers 588, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Lynn Elaine Browne, 2001. "Does Japan offer any lessons for the United States?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Naoyuki Yoshino & Eisuke Sakakibara, 2002. "The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 110-126. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & Peter Tinsley, 2000. "Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2004. "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Guenter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "Deflation: Prevention and Cure," NBER Working Papers 9623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Daiji Kawaguchi & Fumio Ohtake, 2004. "Testing the Morale Theory of Nominal Wage Rigidity," ISER Discussion Paper 0602, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jšrg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive 400, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Greater Monetary Policy Transparency for the G3: Lessons from Full-Fledged Inflation Targeters," IMF Working Papers 03/218, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "The Zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Working Paper Series 218, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Grunspan, T., 2005. "The Fed and the Question of Financial Stability: An Empirical Investigation," Documents de Travail 134, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  9. Shigeyoshi Miyagawa & Yoji Morita & Yoshitaka Sawada, 2007. "The Role of Central Bank in the Recession in the Case of Japan's Recession," Discussion Papers 17, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair, 2008. "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 08/02, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rixtel, Adrian van & Wiwattanakantang, Yupana & Souma, Toshiyuki & Suzuki, Kazunori, 2002. "Banking in Japan: Will "Too Big To Fail" Prevail?," CEI Working Paper Series 2002-16, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hans Genberg, 2005. "External Shocks, Transmission Mechanisms and Deflation in Asia," Working Papers 062005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Working Papers 10878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008," NBER Working Papers 14816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413. [Downloadable!]
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