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The End of the Japanese Stagnation: an Assessment of the Policy Solutions

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Author Info
Claudio Morana ()
Abstract

After more than a decade of stagnant growth, the Japanese economy is showing signs of full recovery, with deflation also having come to an end. Since the mid 1990s both supply side and demand side policy solutions to the Japanese stagnation have been suggested. By means of a Factor Vector Autoregressive Model, the paper aims to assess whether the real depreciation of the yen and the quantitative easying implemented by the Bank of Japan have contributed to the recovery of the Japanese economy and to halt deflationary dynamics. The results of the paper point to the effectiveness of these latter policies, as well as to the role exercised by domestic productivity improvements and the expansion of world economic activity.

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Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 27-2006.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:27-2006

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Related research
Keywords: factor vector autoregression; large scale macroeconometric model; Japan; monetary policy.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 137-206. [Downloadable!]
  2. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 1999. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Working Papers 7250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Akihiro Kanaya & D. Woo, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990s - Sources and Lessons," IMF Working Papers 00/7, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Bierens, Herman J, 2000. "Nonparametric Nonlinear Cotrending Analysis, with an Application to Interest and Inflation in the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 323-37, July.
  5. Harold L. Cole & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1998. "Zero nominal interest rates: why they're good and how to get them," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-10. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-2), pages 93-186. [Downloadable!]
  9. D. Woo, 1999. "In Search of "Capital Crunch" - Supply Factors Behind the Credit Slowdown in Japan," IMF Working Papers 99/3, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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