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Long memory in Angolan macroeconomic series: mean reversion versus explosive behaviour

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  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña

    (Navarra Center for International Development)

  • Carlos Pestana Barros
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Abstract

This study examines the time series behaviour of several Angolan macroeconomic variables, using monthly data from August 1996 to June 2011. The series are the inflation rate, M1, M2, the exchange rate at the beginning and the end of the period, and the monthly average exchange rate. In the first stage univariate fractional integration models are estimated in order to determine whether shocks to the variables have transitory or permanent effects. In the second stage fractional cointegration techniques are applied to test for the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables of interest. The results suggest a high degree of persistence in the individual series (that are not mean-reverting) and the existence of bivariate long-run cointegrating relationships between prices and money, and prices and nominal exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Carlos Pestana Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2014. "Long memory in Angolan macroeconomic series: mean reversion versus explosive behaviour," NCID Working Papers 01/2014, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp01-2014
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    Cited by:

    1. C. P. Barros & João Ricardo Faria & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "The demand for money in Angola," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 408-420, April.
    2. Carlos Pestana Barros, 2016. "Country survey: Angola," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 423-432, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; Angola; fractional integration and cointegration; persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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