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Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis

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  • Ralf Brüggemann

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the sources of German unemployment within a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) framework. For this purpose, we propose a method to estimate an exactly identified Subset SVECM, which is a SVECM with short run parameter restrictions. A cointegration analysis for the unified Germany reveals a long rum relationship between real wages, productivity and unemployment which is interpreted as a wage setting relation. From a Subset VECM we identify meaningful structural shocks and assess their importance for unemployment by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. We compare these results to results from a standard SVECM and find that, using the Subset VECM reduces estimation uncertainty. In contrast to previous studies for West Germany, we find that, unemployment is equally determined by technology, labor supply and labor demand shocks in the long run. - Unemployment ; Subset VECM ; Structural VECM ; Bootstrap ; Cointegration
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  • Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 409-431, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:2:p:409-431
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0021-x
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Cointegration; Structural VECM; Subset SVECM; C32; E24;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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