An Empirical Characterization of Redistribution Shocks and Output Dynamics
AbstractWhat are the economic effects of redistributing one dollar from profits to labour income? We address this question for the post-World War II economies of the United States and Canada within a structural VECM procedure allowing for up to two breaks of unknown timing. In the United States the short-run spending effect on growth, set in motion by higher labour income, is strong enough to make such a redistribution an attractive, maybe provocative, policy alternative. Across the border in Canada, however, the negative medium-run capacity effect, brought about by diminished profits, dominates the picture more or less from the beginning and output slumps considerably, a result actually suggesting a - maybe even more provocative - redistribution towards profits. We discuss several possible explanations such as the formation of expectations and the different exposure to international trade. Methodologically, we provide a novel procedure to estimate cointegrating rank and break dates jointly.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Working Papers with number 68.
Length: 47 pages including 6 Tables and 4 Figures
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as wiiw Working Paper
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-16 (All new papers)
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