Analysis of the Labour Market in Bulgaria through a Error Correction Model
AbstractThe study examines the problems of developing and evaluating a econometric tools for analysis of the labour market in Bulgaria. Applied is an error correction model and a cointegrational analysis to evaluate the main interactions between labour market parameters for the period 1991-2006. In the model are included and examined the most important indexes that characterize the functioning of the labour market (unemployment, employment, wages, productivity of labour and inflation). Through the evaluated restricted version of a vector autoregression model and decomposition of errors is determined the impact of main shocks by the aggregate supply and demand, inflation, wages and technological changes in the prognosis of the evaluated variables. The evaluated model is stable and adequate. The results show that decrease in the level of unemployment is possible only in the presence of positive shocks by the aggregate supply.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute in its journal Economic Thought.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000.
"Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
- Bierens, Herman J., 1997.
"Nonparametric cointegration analysis,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April.
- Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 409-431, June.
- Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vassil Zahariev).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.