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Analysis of the Labour Market in Bulgaria through a Error Correction Model

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  • Anita Staneva

Abstract

The study examines the problems of developing and evaluating a econometric tools for analysis of the labour market in Bulgaria. Applied is an error correction model and a cointegrational analysis to evaluate the main interactions between labour market parameters for the period 1991-2006. In the model are included and examined the most important indexes that characterize the functioning of the labour market (unemployment, employment, wages, productivity of labour and inflation). Through the evaluated restricted version of a vector autoregression model and decomposition of errors is determined the impact of main shocks by the aggregate supply and demand, inflation, wages and technological changes in the prognosis of the evaluated variables. The evaluated model is stable and adequate. The results show that decrease in the level of unemployment is possible only in the presence of positive shocks by the aggregate supply.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute in its journal Economic Thought.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 90-106

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Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2008:i:3:p:90-106

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  1. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April.
  2. Ralf Br├╝ggemann, 2006. "Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 409-431, June.
  3. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
  4. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
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