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Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models

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  • H�vard Hungnes

Abstract

This article suggests an alternative formulation of the cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model such that the coefficients for the deterministic terms have straightforward interpretations. These coefficients can be interpreted as growth rates and cointegration mean level coefficients and express long-run properties of the model. For example, the growth rate coefficients tell us how much to expect (unconditionally) the variables in the system to grow from one period to the next, representing the underlying (steady state) growth in the variables. The estimation of the proposed formulation is made operationally in GRaM, which is a program for Ox Professional. GRaM can be used for analysing structural breaks when the deterministic terms include shift dummies and broken trends. By applying a formulation with interpretable deterministic components, different types of structural breaks can be identified. Shifts in both intercepts and growth rates, or combinations of these, can be tested for. The ability to distinguish between different types of structural breaks makes the procedure superior compared with alternative procedures. Furthermore, the procedure utilizes the information more efficiently than alternative procedures. Finally, interpretable coefficients of different types of structural breaks can be identified. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2010.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 72 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 551-565

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:72:y:2010:i:4:p:551-565

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Cited by:
  1. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Torbjørn Eika, 2013. "The importance of the distribution sector for exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy. A large scale macroeconometric modelling approach," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 731, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  2. Mercedes Esteban Bravo & José M. Vidal-Sanz & Gökhan Yildirim, 2012. "Expenditure trends in US advertising : long-term effects and structural changes with new media introductions," Business Economics Working Papers, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa wb121506, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa, revised Jul 2013.

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