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Global shocks and their impact on the Tanzanian economy

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  • Haile, Fiseha

Abstract

Plummeting commodity prices, China's economic slowdown and rebalancing, and global financial market turbulence have recently raised concerns about their effects on African economies. This paper investigates whether, and to what extent, these intertwined shocks spillover into the Tanzanian economy. The author finds that a 1 percentage point (ppts) drop in China's investment growth is associated with a decline in Tanzania's export growth of roughly 0.60 ppts. A 1 percent fall in commodity prices leads to 0.65 percent lower exports value. The results suggest that a hard landing of the Chinese economy to its 'new normal' would doubtless send shock waves through the Tanzanian economy by further driving down commodity demand and prices as well as lowering development finance. In contrast, financial market volatility has a fairly negligible impact on economic growth. The main results stand up well to a wide-array of robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Haile, Fiseha, 2017. "Global shocks and their impact on the Tanzanian economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:20179
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2017-9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Tanzania; commodity prices; investment; exports; Cointegrated; VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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