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Abstract

This paper investigates the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of" inflation. The known characteristics of price change distributions, specifically the observation" that they generally exhibit high levels of kurtosis, imply that simple averages of price data are" unlikely to produce efficient estimates of inflation. Trimmed means produce superior estimates" of core inflation,' which we define as a long-run centered moving average of CPI and PPI" inflation. We find that trimming 9% from each tail of the CPI price-change distribution from the tails of the PPI price-change distribution, yields an efficient estimator of core inflation" for these two series, although lesser trims also produce substantial efficiency gains. Historically the optimal trimmed estimators are found to be nearly 23% more efficient (in terms of root-mean-square error) than the standard mean CPI Moreover, the efficient estimators are robust to sample period and to the definition of the" presumed underlying long-run trend in inflation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6183.

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Date of creation: Sep 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6183

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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1. Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1996. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Working Papers 96-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
   
   • Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
2. Caballero, R.J. & Engel, E.M.R.A., 1990. "Dynamic (S,S) Economies," Discussion Papers 1990_44, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
   
   • Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1991. "Dynamic (S, s) Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1659-86, November.
   • Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1991. "Dynamic (S,s) Economies," NBER Working Papers 3734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
4. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1991. "State-Dependent Pricing and the Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 683-708, August.
   
   • Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1989. "State-Dependent Pricing And The Dynamics Of Money And Output," Discussion Papers 1989_32, Columbia University, Department of Economics.

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