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Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices Microeconomic Evidence from High Inflation

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  • Mariano Tommasi

    (UCLA)

Abstract

I study the effect of inflation on the ability of economic agents to forecast real prices, using microeconomic data from Argentina 1990-1992. The evidence favors the view that inflation degrades the informational content of real prices. Several rules for forecasting real prices are shown to perform worst at higher iuflation. Also, at high inflation, real prices have shorter durations, and mark-down sales disappear. This snggests that inflation (at least high inflation) has "Industrial Organization" effects usually ignored in macroeconomic assessments of the effects of inflation.
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  • Mariano Tommasi, 1994. "Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices Microeconomic Evidence from High Inflation," UCLA Economics Working Papers 718, UCLA Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:718
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    2. Barnes Juan Diego, 2023. "Dispersión de Precios y Dinámicas Intradistribución en Ambientes de Alta Inflación: Un Análisis Empírico," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4625, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    3. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2010. "Inflation and corporate investment in selected OECD countries in the years 1960-2005 – an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Farooq, Omar & Ahmed, Neveen, 2018. "Does inflation affect sensitivity of investment to stock prices? Evidence from emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 160-164.
    5. Miguel Braun & Rafael Di tella, 2004. "Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 77-100, March.
    6. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Does inflation harm corporate investment? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-38.
    7. Dabus, C. & Viego, V., 2003. "Inflación, Precios Relativos y Crecimiento: Evidencia de América Latina," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 21, pages 91-107, Abril.
    8. Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
    9. Dabús, Carlos & Cerioni, Liliana, 2000. "Causality Inflation-Relative ,Prices: Comparative Evidence From Latin-America," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 20(2), November.
    10. David McKenzie & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2005. "Buying Less, But Shopping More: Changes In Consumption Patterns During A Crisis," Business School Working Papers buyinglessshop, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

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