Good deflation/bad deflation and Japanese economic recovery
AbstractMany economists dismiss the role of positive supply shocks as a cause of Japan's deflation. Indeed, they attribute the long delay in Japan's recovery to the mistaken view that Japan's deflation reflects an acceleration of technological progress. Whatever the current situation in Japan, however, economic history certainly suggests that technological progress can go hand in hand with general deflation. Conducting a VAR analysis using very detailed information about the components of Japan's consumer price index, this paper finds that short-run shocks to Japan's relative price structure persist in the long run. Given this finding, it is possible to conclude that such shocks are real in origin and reflect technological change. As no effort has yet been completed to show the full extent to which technological change is driving short-run relative price change in Japan compared with other factors, and the full extent to which relative price changes are driving aggregate price change compared with other factors, the policy implications of these findings are unclear. What is clear is that it is a mistake to dismiss out of hand the possibility that technological shocks are playing an important role among other forces in Japan's current deflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal International Economics and Economic Policy.
Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=111059
Japanâ€™s deflation; Deflation and technological change;
Other versions of this item:
- Gary Saxonhouse, 2005. "Good Deflation/Bad Deflation and Japanese Economic Recovery," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-104, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gary R. Saxonhouse & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "The Bubble and the Lost Decade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 267-281, 03.
- Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000.
"An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1996. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Working Papers 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001.
"Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative,"
NBER Working Papers
8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1995.
"Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-93, February.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, L. & Mankiw, G.H., 1992. "Relative-Price Change as Aggregate Supply Shocks," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1609, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1993. "Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks," Working Papers 93-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.