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Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy

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Author Info
Michal Brzoza-Brzezina
Jacek Kotlowski () (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)

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Abstract

This paper uses a restricted factor model to estimate the HICP index excluding relative prices changes. The index thus obtained, hereinafter referred to as pure inflation, demonstrates stronger relationship to the central bank instrument (short-term interest rate) than the HICP index and selected measures of core inflation. Pure inflation has also a forecasting performance for future HICP comparable or better than that of competing models. The estimated variable indicates a much weaker role of changes in relative prices in the recent period of rising inflation (2006-2008) than during previous inflation increases (1999-2000 and 2004-05). This may show that inflation was mainly driven by demand pressures in the years 2006-2008.

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File URL: http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/zes/wp/aewp03-09.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 37.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:37

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Postal: 02-554 Warszawa, Al. Niepodległosci 164
Web page: http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/zes
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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; relative prices; factor model; core inflation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The consumer price index as a measure of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rita S. Chu & Charles Steindel, 2000. "The unreliability of inflation indicators," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reis, Ricardo & Watson, Mark W, 2007. "Relative Goods’ Prices and Pure Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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