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Inflation Analysis: An Overview

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  • Quinn, Terry
  • Kenny, Geoff
  • Meyler, Aidan

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy (SOE), indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11361.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Publication status: Published in Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Technical Paper Series 1/RT/1999.1999(1999): pp. 1-22
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11361

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Keywords: inflation analysis and forecasting; judgement; small open economy; ARIMA; BVAR;

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References

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  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers," NBER Working Papers 5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1999. "Modelling Traded, Non-traded and Aggregate Inflation in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, University of Manchester, vol. 67(1), pages 60-88, January.
  5. Geoff Kenny & Donal Mcgettigan, 1998. "Exchange rates and import prices for a small open economy: the case of Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1147-1155.
  6. Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
  7. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Callan, Tim & FitzGerald, John, 1989. "Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) ME179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  10. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
  11. Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998. "Is There Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland 15/1998, Bank of Finland.
  12. Kenny, Geoff, 1996. "Capacity Utilisation in Irish Manufacturing," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
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Cited by:
  1. Eleanor Doyle, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy: the Anglo-Irish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 443-455.
  2. Conall MacCoille & Daniel McCoy, 2002. "Economic Adjustment Within EMU - Ireland’s Experience," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 179-193.
  3. Martins Bitans & Dace Slakota & Ivars Tillers, 2001. "Price Dynamics in Latvia - Experience and Future Prospects," Working Papers, Latvijas Banka 2001/01, Latvijas Banka.

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