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Inflation Analysis: An Overview

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Author Info
Quinn, Terry
Kenny, Geoff
Meyler, Aidan

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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy (SOE), indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11361/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11361.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Publication status: Published in Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Technical Paper Series 1/RT/1999.1999(1999): pp. 1-22
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11361

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Related research
Keywords: inflation analysis and forecasting; judgement; small open economy; ARIMA; BVAR;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Fountas, Stillianos & Lally, Breda & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 1999. "The Relationship between Inflation and Wage Growth in the Irish Economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 317-21, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 11359, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, . "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
    Other versions:
  4. Thomas Doan & Robert Litterman & Christopher Sims, 1984. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian Var Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/98, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers," NBER Working Papers 5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  8. Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Import Prices for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1147-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Callan, Tim & FitzGerald, John, 1989. "Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers ME179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  10. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Tymo Tyrväinen, 1998. "Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Banco de España Working Papers 9823, Banco de España.
    Other versions:
  12. Kenny, Geoff, 1996. "Capacity Utilisation in Irish Manufacturing," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/96, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  13. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martins Bitans & Dace Slakota & Ivars Tillers, 2001. "Price Dynamics in Latvia - Experience and Future Prospects," Working Papers 2001/01, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eleanor Doyle, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy: the Anglo-Irish case," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 443-455, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Conall MacCoille & Daniel McCoy, 2002. "Economic Adjustment Within EMU - Ireland’s Experience," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 179-193. [Downloadable!]
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