Consumers, Consumer Prices and the Czech Business Cycle Identification

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Consumers, Consumer Prices and the Czech Business Cycle Identification

Author Info

Jiri Podpiera

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Jiri Podpiera

Abstract

In this paper we propose an alternative method for deriving the business cycle. We interpret the varying inflationary responses to a constant demand shock in a partial equilibrium model. An above-average inflationary response indicates a boom phase and a below-average response shows an economic slowdown. Our model uses data for prices and household budget shares which are not subject to revisions and are consistent with the inflation measure. Hence, it mitigates the common drawbacks of usually applied techniques, such as real-time data mismeasurement or end-point bias of univariate filters. It follows that the results are altered neither by GDP data revisions, labor share determination and NAIRU estimation and total productivity smoothing, nor by the end-point bias of data filtering. The proposed method is thus preferred to other complementary methods such as GDP series filtering or the production function approach in showing truly the inflation environment. It is applied to the Czech quarterly data during 1994- 2003 and compared to other available business cycle estimates for the Czech economy. Comparing our business cycle estimation method with the production function method, used by the Economic Intelligence Unit and the Czech Ministry of Finance, and the Kalman filter, used by the Czech National Bank, we found the highest correlation between our measure and the Economic Intelligence Unit's indicator.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2004/04.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2004/04

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Email:
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jan Babecky).

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
NEP-MAC-2005-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-TRA-2005-04-16 (Transition Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "An Optimizing Model of U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics," Departmental Working Papers 200110, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Argia Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
Other versions:
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
Giordani, Paolo, 2001. "An Alternative Explanation of the Price Puzzle," Working Paper Series 125, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Giordani, Paolo, 2000. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 414, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2000. [Downloadable!]
- Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paolo Guarda, 2002. "Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods," BCL working papers 4, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
Other versions:
- Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 059, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Michael Ehrmann and Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 8, Society for Computational Economics.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
Alpo Willman, 2002. "Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach," Working Paper Series 153, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Muellbauer, John, 1976. "Community Preferences and the Representative Consumer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 979-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Muellbauer, John, 1975. "Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 525-43, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.

Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? It is the publishers that input data about their publications, as there is no staff at RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.