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An estimation of the euro area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter

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In this paper, we develop an analytical framework for the estimation of potential output and output gaps for the euro area combining multivariate filtering techniques with the production function approach. The advantage of this methodology lies in the fact that it combines a model based approach to explicit statistical assumptions concerning the estimation of the potential values of the components of the production function. We discuss the production function approach and the main issues raised by this approach. We then present the main empirical studies which have estimated production function based output gaps with multivariate filtering techniques. The production function approach will be implemented with Multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filters (HPMV). The advantage of the multivariate production function approach will also be assessed through using a variety of statistical criteria.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2004-14.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0414

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  2. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Lemoine, Matthieu & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Monperrus-Veroni, Paola & Reynes, Frédéric, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for theeuro-area: comparing production function with unobserved componentsand SVAR approaches," MPRA Paper 13128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
  2. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Salvador, Pablo F., 2006. "The (Ir)relevance of the NRU for Policy Making: The Case of Denmark," IZA Discussion Papers 2397, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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