This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Philippe Moës () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Structural time series models applied to the factor inputs of a production function often lead to small output gaps and consequently to erratic measures of potential growth. We introduce a dual cycle model which is an extension to the multivariate trend plus cycle model with phase shifts à la Rünstler. The dual cycle model is a combination of two types of models: the trend plus cycle model and the cyclical trend model, where the cycle appears in the growth rate of a variable. This property enables hysteresis to be taken into account. Hysteresis is likely to show up in unemployment but it can also affect the capital stock due to the existence of long investment cycles. In the proposed model, hysteresis may affect all the factor inputs of the production function and phase shifts are extended to the dual cycles. Genuine measures of potential growth can be computed that are hysteresis-free and less prone to volatility. A complementary measure of the output gap that takes hysteresis into account can be derived

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/WP136En.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Research series with number 200808-20.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200808-20

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Bruxelles
Phone: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 25 34
Fax: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 31 62
Email:
Web page: http://www.nbb.be
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: Output gap; potential growth; hysteresis; structural time series models;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Himmelberg, Charles P. & Hubbard, R. Glenn & Love, Inessa, 2002. "Investor protection, ownership, and the cost of capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2834, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aucremanne, L., 2000. "The Use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," Papers 2, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
  3. Luc Aucremanne, 2000. "The use of robust estimators as measures of core inflation," Research series 200003-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2006. "The response of firms‘ investment and financing to adverse cash flow shocks - the role of bank relationships," Working Paper Series 658, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jean-Jacques Vanhaelen & Luc Dresse & Jan De Mulder, 2000. "The Belgian industrial confidence indicator: leading indicator of economic activity in the euro area ?," Documents series 200011, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    Other versions:
  7. Luc Aucremanne & Guy Brys & Mia Hubert & Peter J. Rousseeuw & Anja Struyf, 2002. "Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities," Research series 200205-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Reinout De Bock, 2007. "Investment-Specific Technology Shocks and Labor Market Frictions," Research series 200701-01, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  9. Grégory de Walque, 2004. "Voting on pensions: a survey," Research series 200410-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Vincent Bodart & Gregory De Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Henri R. Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2006. "Nominal Wage Rigidities in a New Keynesian Model with Frictional Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 2528, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2006. "The response of firms\u2019 investment and financing to adverse cash flow shocks : the role of bank relationships," Research series 200607-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  12. Johan Devriese & Janet Mitchell, 2005. "Liquidity risk in securities settlement," Research series 200507-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Research series 200711-27, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Joseph Plasmans & Tomasz Michalak & Jorge Fornero, 2006. "Simulation, estimation and welfare implications of monetary policies in a 3-country NOEM model," Research series 200610-6, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  15. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," Research series 200405-9, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2005. "An international analysis of earnings, stock prices and bond yields," Research series 200509-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Documents de Travail 215, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylized facts from individual consumer price data," Working Paper Series 524, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Luc Aucremann & David Cornille, 2001. "Attractive prices and euro-rounding effects on inflation," Documents series 200111, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  21. Vivien Lewis, 2006. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and firm entry : theory and evidence," Research series 200610-13, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the Euro area: new survey evidence," Banco de España Working Papers 0536, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Robert Plasman & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2006. "Industry wage differentials, unobserved ability, and rent-sharing : Evidence from matched worker-firm data, 1995-2002," Research series 200610-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Sophie Manigart & Katleen Baeyens & Ilse Verschueren, 2002. "Financing and investment interdependencies in unquoted Belgian companies: the role of venture capital," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2002-16, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. Danny Cassimon & Peter-Jan Engelen & Hilde Meersman & Martine Van Wouwe, 2002. "Investment, uncertainty and irreversibility: evidence from belgian accounting data," Research series 200205-4, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  26. Vanhaelen, J.J. & Dresse, L. & de Mulder, J., 2000. "The Belgian Industrial Confidence Indicator: Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in the Euro Area?," Papers 12, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
  27. Filip Abraham & Jozef Konings & Stijn Vanormelingen, 2006. "Price and wage setting in an integrating Europe : firm level evidence," Research series 200610-5, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  28. Patrick Van Cayseele, 2004. "Financial consolidation and liquidity: prudential regulation and/or competition policy?," Research series 200405-6, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  29. William T. Dickens & Lorenz Götte & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julián Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie E. Ward, 2006. "How wages change - micro evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," Working Paper Series 697, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  30. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2002. "Structural modelling of investment and financial constraints: Where do we stand?," Research series 200205-9, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  31. David de la Croix & Gregory de Walque & Rafael Wouters, 2006. "Dynamics and monetary policy in a fair wage model of the business cycle," Research series 200610-10, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. Marcel Gérard & Frédéric Verscueren, 2002. "Finance, uncertainty and investment: assessing the gains and losses of a generalized non linear structural approach using Belgian panel data," Research series 200205-7, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  33. Helena Beltran & Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2004. "How does liquidity react to stress periods in a limit order market?," Research series 200405-5, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  34. Natalie Chen & Jean Imbs & Andrew Scott, 2006. "The dynamics of trade and competition," Research series 200610-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  35. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A multi-factor model for the valuation and risk managment of demand deposits," Research series 200605-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  36. Janet Mitchell, 2005. "Financial intermediation theory and implications for the sources of value in structured finance markets," Documents series 200507-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Springer Verlag was the first commercial publisher to be listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.