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The business cycle of European countries Bayesian clustering of country- individual IP growthseries

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Abstract

In the present paper, time series on industrial production growth of individual countries are used to investigate the following questions: (i) Is there a common growth cycle for the euro area countries? (ii) Did the synchronization change over time? (iii) Can we discriminate between a "European" and an "overseas" cycle? (iv) Which countries follow the "overseas" rather than the "European" cycle? To obtain the inference, I use an autoregressive panel data framework whereby the groups of co-moving countries are estimated adaptively along with the model parameters using Bayesian simulation methods.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 83.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 14 Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:83

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Keywords: Business cycle; Bayesian clustering; Markov switching; Markov chain Monte Carlo; panel data.;

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  1. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2002. "Is there an asymmetric effect of monetary policy over time? A Bayesian analysis using Austrian data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 277-297.
  2. Hoogstrate, Andre J & Palm, Franz C & Pfann, Gerard A, 2000. "Pooling in Dynamic Panel-Data Models: An Application to Forecasting GDP Growth Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 274-83, July.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  7. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the U.S," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10141, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  8. Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2004. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members," MNB Working Papers 2004/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  2. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
  3. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Guido Cazzavillan, 2007. "Dating EU15 monthly business cycle jointly using GDP and IPI," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2007(3), pages 333-366.

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