Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features

Contents:

Author Info

  • Peter McAdam

Abstract

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the USA, Japan and the Euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common business cycle, asymmetries in the national cycles and, using a number of algorithms, date business-cycle turning points. Despite a high degree of trade and financial linkages, the cyclical features of USA, Japan and the Euro area appear quite distinct. Documenting and comparing such international business-cycle features can, for example, aid the development of business-cycle models and inform policy making.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02692170601035066
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 135-156

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:21:y:2007:i:1:p:135-156

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CIRA20

Related research

Keywords: Business cycle; Markov switching; synchronization; turning points;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
  3. Coenen, Guenter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
  6. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(02), pages 373-401, June.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  9. Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1986. "The Impact of Interdependence on Economic Policy Design: The Case of the US, EEC and Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  11. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans," NBER Working Papers 3160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  13. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0218, European Central Bank.
  14. Belaire-Franch Jorge & Contreras Dulce, 2003. "An Assessment of International Business Cycle Asymmetries using Clements and Krolzig's Parametric Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, March.
  15. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  16. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0171, European Central Bank.
  17. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0042, European Central Bank.
  18. McAdam, Peter & McNelis, Paul, 2005. "Forecasting inflation with thick models and neural networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 848-867, September.
  19. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
  20. Robert Mundell, 1998. "What the euro means for the dollar and the international Monetary system," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 227-237, September.
  21. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 2003. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-100, January.
  22. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  23. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  24. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  25. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Supply, Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re-examining Euro-area New-Keynesian Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 637-670, 09.
  26. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A, 2002. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 95-103, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Christian Richter & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics 45, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
  3. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Guido Cazzavillan, 2007. "Dating EU15 Monthly Business Cycle Jointly Using GDP and IPI," Working Papers 2007_19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  4. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13025, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  5. Tara Sinclair & Sinchan Mitra, 2008. "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy 2008-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  6. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  7. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  8. Andreas Humpe & Peter D. Macmillan, 2005. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0511, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
  9. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00803457 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Märten Kress, 2004. "Lending cycles in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.
  11. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013. "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series 70, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), Goethe University Frankfurt.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:21:y:2007:i:1:p:135-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.