Lending cycles in Estonia
AbstractThe objective of this paper is to examine possible cyclical patterns in the lending behavior of Estonian commercial banks. Furthermore, the degree of cycle synchronization between the business cycle and the credit cycle and how much one cycle is behind the other in the case of Estonia is of particular interest. The paper uses data from between January 1994 and February 2004 to identify the Estonian business and credit cycles and compare their features. A Markov regime-switching technique was used in dating both business and credit cycles. Variables of interest in terms of the credit cycle include the total amount of loans provided by commercial banks, household loans, corporate loans, and the share of overdue loans in the total portfolio. Both, monthly and quarterly data was utilized to double-check the results and the business cycle was dated using the Industrial Production Index (IPI) and GDP, respectively. The share of overdue loans in the total portfolio appeared to be counter-cyclical as expected. Changes in the IPI seemed to cause changes in corporate loans with a two-quarter lag on average. Asymmetries between the credit and business cycles were found for Estonia. That is, it takes approximately five months from the beginning of an economic slowdown before corporate loans move into a contraction regime. However, it takes approximately eight months for corporate loans to recover their expansionary growth rate. Changes in household loans seemed to precede changes in economic activity by approximately one quarter.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2004-3.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2004
Date of revision: 10 Oct 2004
Publication status: published
Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-07-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2005-07-25 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-TRA-2005-07-25 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruno Giancarlo & Edoardo Otranto, 2004.
"Dating the Italian BUsiness Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures,"
ISAE Working Papers
41, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," Econometrics 0312003, EconWPA.
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000.
"Concordance in Business Cycles,"
IMF Working Papers
00/37, International Monetary Fund.
- C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Peter McAdam, 2007.
"USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features,"
International Review of Applied Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156.
- McAdam, Peter, 2003. "US, Japan and the euro area: comparing business-cycle features," Working Paper Series 0283, European Central Bank.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
NBER Working Papers
5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Juan J. DOLADO & Helmut LÜTKEPOHL, 1994.
"Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated Var Systems,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1994,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Dolado, J.J. & Lutkepohl, H., 1994. "Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated Var Systems," Papers 9424, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998.
"Measuring Monetary Policy,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Bernanke and Mihov QJE 1998," Statistical Software Components RTZ00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission,"
NBER Working Papers
3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, octubre-d.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, octubre-d.
- Swanson, N.R. & Ozyildirim, A. & Pisu, M., 1996. "A Comparison of Alternatove causality and Predictive Accuracy Tests in the presence of Integrated and Co-integrated Economic Variables," Papers 4-96-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Kim, C-J., 1991.
"Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,"
91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peeter Luikmel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.