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The Role of Labor Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth

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Ian Dew-Becker
Robert J. Gordon

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Abstract

Throughout the postwar era until 1995 labor productivity grew faster in Europe than in the United States. Since 1995, productivity growth in the EU-15 has slowed while that in the United States has accelerated. But Europe's productivity growth slowdown was largely offset by faster growth in employment per capita, leaving little difference in growth of output per capita between the EU and US going back to 1980. This paper is about the strong negative tradeoff between productivity and employment growth within Europe. We document this tradeoff in the raw data, in regressions that control for the two-way causation between productivity and employment growth, and we show that there is a robust negative correlation between productivity and employment growth across countries and time. Our primary explanatory variables to explain both the revival of EU employment growth and the slowdown in productivity growth include six policy and institutional variables. We find that several of these variables have significant negative effects on employment per capita, both before and after 1995. We also find a significant time effect, that the increase in European employment per capita increased after 1995 for reasons that go beyond our six explanatory variables, and we link this time effect to a secular increase in the labor-force participation of women, particularly in southern European countries. We conclude by suggesting that evaluations of alternative policy reforms in Europe should take into account any offsetting effects on employment and productivity by examining the ultimate impact on changes in income per capita.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13840.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13840

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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  2. Ricardo Lagos, 2006. "A Model of TFP," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(4), pages 983-1007, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Daron Acemoglu & Robert Shimer, 1999. "Efficient Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 893-928, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Giuseppe Bertola & Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2002. "Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Employment Patterns," NBER Working Papers 9043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions," OECD Social Employment and Migration Working Papers 35, OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Nicoletti, Giuseppe & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2003. "Regulation, productivity, and growth : OECD evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2944, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions. Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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