IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v79y2013i3p659-679.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Interest Rate and Labor Market Performance around the World

Author

Listed:
  • Horst Feldmann

Abstract

This article studies the effects of the real interest rate on labor market performance. Using a much larger sample of countries and more indicators of labor market performance than have been used in previous articles, it finds that a rise in the real interest rate increases the unemployment rate, raises the share of long‐term unemployed, and reduces the employment rate. The magnitude of these effects is very small in the short run but much more pronounced—though still fairly small—in the long run. Young people are disproportionately affected. The results are robust to variations in specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Horst Feldmann, 2013. "Real Interest Rate and Labor Market Performance around the World," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(3), pages 659-679, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:79:y:2013:i:3:p:659-679
    DOI: 10.4284/0038-4038-2011.156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-2011.156
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4284/0038-4038-2011.156?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    3. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
    4. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "Do We Know How Low Inflation Should Be?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 879-907.
    7. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 28(Jul), pages 2-13.
    8. Bertola, Giuseppe & Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence, 2001. "Comparative Analysis of Labour Market Outcomes: Lessons for the US from International Long-Run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 3023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Etienne Wasmer & Philippe Weil, 2004. "The Macroeconomics of Credit and Labor Markets Imperfections," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01020132, HAL.
    10. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, January.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron, 2001. "Credit market imperfections and persistent unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 665-679, May.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8622 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5571 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta, 2005. "Product Market Reforms and Employment in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 472, OECD Publishing.
    16. Erica Groshen & Mark Schweitzer, 1999. "Identifying Inflation's Grease and Sand Effects in the Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 273-314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    18. Dogrul, H. Günsel & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1523-1528, November.
    19. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S. Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 237-311.
    20. Feldmann, Horst, 2009. "The unemployment effects of labor regulation around the world," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-90, March.
    21. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
    22. Etienne Wasmer & Philippe Weil, 2004. "The Macroeconomics of Labor and Credit Market Imperfections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 944-963, September.
    23. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    24. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
    25. Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain & Thoenig, Mathias, 2009. "Growth and risk at the industry level: The real effects of financial liberalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 210-222, July.
    26. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    27. Horst Feldmann, 2006. "Credit Market Regulation and Labor Market Performance Around the World," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 497-525, November.
    28. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5571 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 35, OECD Publishing.
    30. Baccaro, Lucio & Rei, Diego, 2007. "Institutional Determinants of Unemployment in OECD Countries: Does the Deregulatory View Hold Water?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 527-569, July.
    31. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    32. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    33. Di Tella, Rafael & MacCulloch, Robert, 2005. "The consequences of labor market flexibility: Panel evidence based on survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1225-1259, July.
    34. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Alessandro Prati & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2009. "Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 2009/003, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit & Kallianiotis, Ioannis, 2001. "Interest rate risk, labor supply and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 223-231, April.
    36. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
    37. Mr. James McHugh, 2002. "Wage Centralization, Union Bargaining, and Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2002/143, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    39. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8622 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Brunello, Giorgio & Lupi, Claudio & Ordine, Patrizia, 2000. "Regional Disparities and the Italian NAIRU," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 146-177, January.
    42. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "The Determinants of Unemployment across OECD Countries," Post-Print halshs-00120584, HAL.
    43. Horst Feldmann, 2006. "Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Industrial Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 443-459, June.
    44. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    45. Krol, Robert & Svorny, Shirley, 1996. "The effect of the bank regulatory environment on state economic activity," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 531-541, August.
    46. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld99-1, March.
    47. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feldmann, Horst, 2012. "Banking deregulation around the world, 1970s to 2000s: The impact on unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-42.
    2. Feldmann, Horst, 2015. "Banking system concentration and unemployment in developing countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 60-78.
    3. Horst Feldmann, 2013. "Technological unemployment in industrial countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 1099-1126, November.
    4. Horst Feldmann, 2012. "Product Market Regulation and Labor Market Performance around the World," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 26(3), pages 369-391, September.
    5. Horst Feldmann, 2013. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Unemployment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 537-553, July.
    6. Feldmann, Horst, 2009. "The unemployment effects of labor regulation around the world," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-90, March.
    7. Horst Feldmann, 2011. "The Unemployment Puzzle of Corporate Taxation," Public Finance Review, , vol. 39(6), pages 743-769, November.
    8. Horst Feldmann, 2013. "Banking System Concentration And Labor Market Performance In Industrial Countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 719-732, October.
    9. Feldmann, Horst, 2012. "Real interest rate and labor market performance in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 200-203.
    10. Horst Feldmann, 2010. "Venture Capital Availability and Labor Market Performance in Industrial Countries: Evidence Based on Survey Data," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 23-54, February.
    11. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "The Determinants of Unemployment across OECD Countries," Post-Print halshs-00120584, HAL.
    12. Silvia Fedeli & Vitantonio Mariella & Marco Onofri, 2018. "Determinants of Joblessness During the Economic Crisis: Impact of Criminality in the Italian Labour Market," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 559-588, September.
    13. repec:eid:wpaper:01/10 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Christoph S. Weber, 2020. "The unemployment effect of central bank transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2947-2975, December.
    15. Petrick, Martin & Zier, Patrick, 2012. "Common Agricultural Policy effects on dynamic labour use in agriculture," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 37(6), pages 671-678.
    16. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    17. Aurélien GAIMON & Vincent LAPEGUE & Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Noé N’SEMI & Frédéric REYNÈS & Maël THEULIERE, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle? a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    18. Simon Sturn, 2011. "Labour market regimes and unemployment in OECD countries," IMK Working Paper 6-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political Ideology and Economic Freedom Across Canadian Provinces," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 143-166.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Johanna Kemper, 2016. "Resolving the Ambiguity: A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Employment Protection on Employment and Unemployment," KOF Working papers 16-405, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    22. Linzert, Tobias, 2005. "The Unemployment Inflation Trade-Off in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 1699, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:79:y:2013:i:3:p:659-679. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.