Inspecting the cyclical properties of the Italian Manufacturing Business survey data
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the cyclical features of the main Italian Manufacturing Business Survey indicators using time and frequency domain techniques. In particular, it analyzes the dynamics of each survey variable over time and with respect to different benchmark business cycles. The findings show that important changes have occurred in the periodicity and volatility of Manufacturing Survey data over the years. As expected, the contemporary cross-correlation of each Survey indicator is higher with respect to the industrial production than it is to the GDP cyclical component. Evidence of significant differences in the co-movements between each indicator with respect to GDP and industrial production is found. The cross-spectral analysis seems to reveal the existence of a common periodicity of all cyclical indicators with both the manufacturing and the whole-economy business cycle. This last result confirms the strength of Business Survey data used as short-run policy indicators.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 83.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Business cycle; Cross-correlations; Spectral analysis; Manufacturing Business survey data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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- Cesaroni, Tatiana, 2008.
"Estimating potential output using business survey data in a SVAR framework,"
16324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tatiana Cesaroni, 2010. "Estimating potential output using business survey data in a svar framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2249-2258.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
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