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Demografía, mercado de trabajo y tecnología: El patrón de crecimiento de Cataluña, 1970-2020/Demography, Labour Market and Technical Progress: The Pattern of Growth in Cataluña, 1970-2020

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  • CORREA-LÓPEZ, MÓNICA

    ()
    (Servicio de Estudios Económicos, BBVA Research, ESPAÑA y Department of Economics, University of Manchester, REINO UNIDO)

  • MINGORANCE-ARNÁIZ, ANA CRISTINA

    ()
    (Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Universidad San Pablo CEU, ESPAÑA.)

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    Abstract

    En los últimos cuarenta años, la tasa media anual de crecimiento del PIB per cápita de Cataluña se ha situado en torno al 2%, resultado de un patrón de crecimiento económico que se ha desarrollado de acuerdo a dos modelos claramente diferenciados. El primero de ellos se extiende de 1970 a 1992, y en él, el crecimiento del producto potencial per cápita se apoyó, fundamentalmente, en las ganancias de productividad de la mano de obra, consecuencia del fuerte aumento de la eficiencia tecnológica. El segundo abarca el periodo 1993-2010, y con él, son la evolución favorable de los factores demográficos y del mercado laboral, especialmente el grado de utilización del factor trabajo, los que explican el crecimiento del producto potencial per cápita de Cataluña, pasando la productividad a un segundo plano al desacelerarse su crecimiento. La actual crisis económica está afectando a Cataluña con especial virulencia, frenando en gran medida su tasa de crecimiento. No obstante, a medio plazo, Cataluña podría recuperar una tasa de crecimiento del producto potencial entorno al 2,2% siempre que se embarque en un proceso de convergencia, y cierre de la brecha tecnológica que mantiene con la economía estadounidense. Over the last forty years, the pattern of long-term economic growth in Catalonia has been characterised by two very distinctive phases. During the period 1970-1992, the source of per capita output growth is found in the extensive labour productivity gains that were the result of technological efficiency improvements. The period 1993-2010, on the other hand, witnessed a favourable evolution of demographic and labour market factors - more particularly, a strong expansion of labour utilisation - while labour productivity growth slowed down substantially. This paper presents medium-term forecasts of potential growth in Catalonia and suggests that labour productivity growth may underpin an estimated potential growth rate of 2,2%. Yet, the results are conditional upon Catalonia´s effort at closing the technological gap with the U.S.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2012)
    Issue (Month): (Abril)
    Pages: 365 (34 pags)

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:30_1_15

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    Related research

    Keywords: Crecimiento potencial; productividad total de los factores; Cataluña. ; Potential Growth; Total Factor Productivity; Catalonia..;

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    References

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