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Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France. Les effets à court et à long terme

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  • Jérôme Creel
  • Paola Monperrus-Veroni
  • Francesco Saraceno

Abstract

Assessing the discretionary component of a fiscal policy is a difficult task. With a vector autoregressive model of the us economy and thanks to an original identification procedure, Blanchard and Perotti [2002, qje] were able to estimate thoroughly the impact on gdp of a discretionary shock on public expenditures or tax receipts. Adopting a longer term view with theoretical restrictions to identify the model deriving from the Fiscal theory of the price level, we show that, in France, the fiscal multiplier grows over time, from 0.8 in the short run (in the best case) to 2 in the long run. The empirical validity of the Fiscal theory is also discussed. Classification JEL : C32 ; E60 ; E63 ; H60

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France. Les effets à court et à long terme," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 58(5), pages 1035-1053.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_585_1035
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2009. "Petit manuel de stratégies de sortie de crise," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01023657, HAL.
    2. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00973049, HAL.
    3. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460510, HAL.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6152 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus‐Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2009. "On The Long‐Term Effects Of Fiscal Policy In The United Kingdom: The Case For A Golden Rule," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 580-607, November.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
    8. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00834841 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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