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Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France. L'approche var structurel

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  • Olivier Biau
  • Élie Girard
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    Abstract

    In order to estimate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in France, we estimate a structural var inspired by Blanchard and Perotti [2002]. In accordance with most large macroeconometric models, the paper testifies to the macroeconomic effectiveness of a structural increase in public spending in the short run (multiplier close to 1.4) which, beyond its mechanical impact on aggregate demand, stimulates private consumption and investment. In the same way, the estimated effect of a structural increase in taxes on output is negative, mainly because of a decrease in private consumption; however, this response is small (multiplier close to ?0.1 only) and significant only in the very short run, even if this result depends on the specific tax under consideration.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 56 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 755-764

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    Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_563_0755

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    Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

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    Cited by:
    1. Tenhofen, Jörn & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    2. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 3/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Cléaud, G. & Lemoine, M. & Pionnier, P.-A., 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Working papers 469, Banque de France.
    4. Sebastian Gechert, 2013. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 117-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Testing for contemporary fiscal policy discretion with real time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    6. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece," Working Papers 169, Bank of Greece.

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