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Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire? Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques

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  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE)

  • Bruno Ducoudre
  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (OFCE)

Abstract

Selon la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques (NAK), la politique budgétaire de stabilisation n’a aucun effet favorable sur l’activité. D’une part, les gouvernements utiliseraient la politique budgétaire à mauvais escient, à des fins électoralistes et non à des fins de régulation ; les déficits publics seraient généralement trop élevés, conduisant à une trop forte accumulation de dette publique. D’autre part, les déficits publics seraient nuisibles en induisant une hausse des taux d’intérêt, en provoquant une baisse de la demande privée (puisque les agents anticipent les impôts qu’ils devront payer demain) et une baisse de l’offre (en raison de l’anticipation des effets néfastes des impôts futurs). La seule stratégie macroéconomique efficace en Europe consisterait à baisser les dépenses publiques, ce qui permettrait une baisse de la fiscalité, qui provoquerait une hausse de l’offre et de la demande. Les périodes de consolidation budgétaire (c’est-à-dire de réduction des déficits publics obtenue principalement par baisse des dépenses), qui conduisent les agents à anticiper un niveau durablement plus faible d’imposition, auraient des effets favorables sur l’activité. Cette thèse est dominante dans les milieux européens, tant communautaires qu’universitaires. Notre article comprend deux parties. La première présente, de manière critique, les modèles théoriques de la NAK en discutant les différents canaux de transmission (consommation, investissement, taux d’intérêt) et les différentes hypothèses (situation conjoncturelle de l’économie, anticipation de la politique budgétaire, utilité des dépenses publiques). Elle montre que les effets anti-keynésiens ne peuvent apparaître que dans des cas très particuliers. La deuxième analyse les résultats empiriques de la NAK en distinguant les études économétriques par comportement, les études statistiques, les études de cas, les modèles VAR et les simulations de modèles macroéconomiques. Contrairement aux modèles théoriques, les effets anti-keynésiens semblent jouer surtout par le canal de l’investissement empiriquement. Les effets observés semblent liés à la concomitance de chocs d’offre favorables et de réformes budgétaires : ils ne peuvent être généralisés à la politique budgétaire de régulation. La conclusion tire les implications du débat pour la politique économique.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/1769.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2005, pp.43-97
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1769

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Cited by:
  1. François Facchini & Mickaël Melki, 2011. "Optimal Government Size and Economic Growth in France (1871-2008): An explanation by the State and Market Failures," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11077, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00654363 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  4. Mathieu, Catherine & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2011. "Finances publiques, sorties de crise..," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12010, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2013. "Redemption?," Sciences Po publications 2013-06, Sciences Po.
  6. HOUNKPODOTE, Hilaire & BATIONO, Rakissiwindé, 2009. "Heterogeneite De La Causalite Entre Depenses Publiques Et Croissance Economique Dans Les Pays De L'Uemoa:Quelles Implications Pour La Coordination Des Politiques Budgetaires
    [Heterogeneity Of The C
    ," MPRA Paper 26027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudre & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b9, Sciences Po.

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