Public investment: another (different) look
AbstractUsing a structural Vector Autoregression approach, this paper compares the macroeconomic effects of the three main government spending tools: government investment, consumption, and transfers to households, both in terms of the size and the speed of their effects on GDP and its components. Contrary to a common opinion, there is no evidence that government investment shocks are more effective than government consumption shocks in boosting GDP: this is true both in the short and, perhaps more surprisingly, in the long run. In fact, government investment appears to crowd out private investment, especially in dwelling and in machinery and equipment. There is no evidence that government investment “pays for itself” in the long run, as proponents of the “Golden Rule” implicitly or explicitly argue. The positive effects of government consumption itself are rather limited, and defense purchases have even smaller (or negative) effects on GDP and private investment. There is also no evidence that government transfers are more effective than government consumption in stimulating demand.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 277.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)
Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-20 (All new papers)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Roberto Perotti, 2007.
"In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
13143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007.
"Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a Difference in the UK ?,"
Documents de Travail de l'OFCE
2007-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK," Sciences Po publications 2007-13, Sciences Po.
- António Afonso & Peter Claeys, 2006. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output – the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/26, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010.
"How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?,"
NBER Working Papers
16479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 2011. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 11/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Guillermo Perry & Luis Servén & Rodrigo Suescún, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth : Prudence or Abstinence," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6818, March.
- Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2007. "Staatsverschuldung wirksam begrenzen. Expertise im Auftrag des Bundesministers für Wirtschaft und Technologie," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75368.
- Duarte Bom, P.R. & Ligthart, J.E., 2011.
"Public Infrastructure Investment, Output Dynamics, and Balanced Budget Fiscal Rules,"
2011-092, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Pedro R. D. Bom & Jenny Ligthart, 2011. "Public Infrastructure Investment, Output Dynamics, and Balanced Budget Fiscal Rules," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1119, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2006. "Estimating the impact of public investment in the united Kingdom : Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a Difference ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2681, Sciences Po.
- Calderon, Cesar & Serven, Luis, 2010. "Infrastructure in Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5317, The World Bank.
- Anita Tuladhar & Markus Bruckner, 2010. "Public Investment as a Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Japan's Regional Spending During the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 10/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Suescun, Rodrigo, 2005. "Fiscal space for investment in infrastructure in Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3629, The World Bank.
- Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Araújo, Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos, 2006. "On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Infrastructure Investment in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 613, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.