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Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area

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Günter Coenen
Roland Straub

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Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption which have been at centre stage of the macroeconomic policy debate for quite a long time. We conduct our analysis in an estimated model of the euro area, which is representative of a new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models usable for quantitative policy analysis. We show that the inclusion of non-Ricardian households, which simply consume their current disposable income, is in general conducive to raising the level of consumption in response to government spending shocks when compared with a benchmark specification without non-Ricardian households. However, we find that there is only a fairly small chance that government spending shocks crowd in consumption, mainly because the estimated share of non-Ricardian households is relatively low, but also because of the large negative wealth effect induced by the highly persistent nature of government spending shocks. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2005

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 435-470
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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:435-470

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1999. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1888, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  5. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  8. Florin O. Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2004. "Fiscal Policy, Business Cycles and Labor-Market Fluctuations," MNB Working Papers 2004/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  9. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2003. " Fiscal Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 911-29, December.
  11. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
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  13. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2004. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Working Paper Series 339, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2002. "Should the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve be concerned about fiscal policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 333-389. [Downloadable!]
  17. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  19. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ivan Tchakarov & Roland Straub, 2007. "Assessing the Impact of a Change in the Composition of Public Spending: A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/168, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michal Horvath, 2007. " Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Non-Ricardian Agents," CDMA Working Paper Series 0703, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised May 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Working Paper Series 522, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Elizaveta Krylova & Jussi Nikkinen & Sami Vähämaa, 2005. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Working Paper Series 530, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ratto Marco & Roeger Werner & Veld Jan, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 43, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Roland Straub, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area - a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 747, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Roberto Perotti, 2007. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 13143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Günter Coenen & Matthias Mohr & Roland Straub, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area - long-run benefits and short-run costs," Working Paper Series 902, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Guido Wolswijk, 2005. "On some fiscal effects on mortgage debt growth in the EU," Working Paper Series 526, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2006. "Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," IMF Working Papers 06/168, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Working Paper Series 558, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Roland Straub & Ivan Tchakarov, 2007. "Assessing the impact of a change in the composition of public spending - a DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 795, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/375, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dibartolomeo, Giovanni & Rossi, Lorenza & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2004. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," MPRA Paper 1094, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  15. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Discretionary policy, multiple equilibria, and monetary instruments," Working Paper Series 533, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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