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The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area

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Author Info
Forni, Lorenzo
Monteforte, Libero
Sessa, Luca

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Abstract

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services, compensation of public employees and transfers to households. A newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used. Our results point to the prevalence of mild Keynesian effects of public expenditures. In particular, although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent, government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short-lived expansionary effects on private consumption, while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect. The effects are more significant on the revenue side: decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output, while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run. Finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V76-4TMSNRV-2/2/2b129a02e2e7daa91f7b2d35adb5804c
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Public Economics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (April)
Pages: 559-585
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Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:93:y:2009:i:3-4:p:559-585

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy Distortionary taxation DSGE modeling Bayesian estimation;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jérôme Henry & Pablo Hernández de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 396, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 435-470, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2003. " Fiscal Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 911-29, December.
  5. Pappa, Evi, 2005. "New-Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Francesco FURLANETTO, 2007. "Fiscal Shocks and the Consumption Response when Wages are Sticky," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 07.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Roland Straub, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area - a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 747, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Galí, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, Jose David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2004. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670. [Downloadable!]
  17. Luca Sala, 2004. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 257, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  18. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 128, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1999. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 7207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Andrea Colciago, 2006. "Sticky wages and rule of thumb consumers," Working Papers 98, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
  22. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, Juan, 2004. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 153-187, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Finn, Mary G, 1998. "Cyclical Effects of Government's Employment and Goods Purchases," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 635-57, August.
  24. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  28. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Claeys Peter, 2008. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," wp.comunite 0038, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michal Horvath, 2008. " The Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption under Optimal Stabilization," CDMA Working Paper Series 0805, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(16), pages 1-31. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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