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New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis

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Author Info
V.V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen R. McGrattan

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Abstract

Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate structural model is essential to reliably evaluate the effects of policies, we conclude that New Keynesian models are not yet useful for policy analysis.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14313.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14313

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E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Colander, 2009. "Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0912, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2009. "Financial Frictions and Monetary Transmission," Working papers 2009-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2008. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-08-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Working Papers 662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. John F. Cogan & Tobias Cwik & John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers," Working Paper Series 1090, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Colander, David C., 2009. "Economists, incentives, judgment, and the European CVAR approach to macroeconometrics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(9), pages 1-21. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hillinger, Claude & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2008. "The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!," Discussion Papers in Economics 6987, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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