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A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty

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  • Cogley, Timothy

    ()
    (New York University)

  • de Paoli, Bianca

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Matthes, Christian

    ()
    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

  • Nikolov, Kalin

    ()
    (European Central Bank)

  • Yates, Tony

    ()
    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper undertakes a Bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the United Kingdom. We estimate a suite of monetary policy models that include both forward and backward-looking representations as well as large and small-scale models. We find an optimal simple Taylor-type rule that accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty. For the most part, backward-looking models are highly fault tolerant with respect to policies optimised for forward-looking representations, while forward-looking models have low fault tolerance with respect to policies optimised for backward-looking representations. In addition, backward-looking models often have lower posterior probabilities than forward-looking models. Bayesian policies therefore have characteristics suitable for inflation and output stabilisation in forward-looking models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 414.

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Length: 74 pages
Date of creation: 02 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0414

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  1. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2005. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 268, Bank of England.
  2. William Brock & Steven Durlauf & Kenneth West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  4. Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 108, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02.
  7. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0870, European Central Bank.
  8. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Federico Ravenna, 2014. "How Central Banks Learn the True Model of the Economy," Cahiers de recherche 1409, CIRPEE.
  2. Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
  3. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
  4. Ravenna, Federico, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy and model selection in a real-time learning environment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 322-325.
  5. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  6. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  7. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

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